Peak Oil Hong Kong - An ASPO affiliate
Last Updated 13/5/08
2802 Admiralty Centre Tower 1
18 Harcourt Road
Hong Kong
ph: 3748 3815
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Welcome to Peak Oil Hong Kong
The looming peak in global oil production represents a huge risk to Hong Kong and the world. Yet the concept of Peak Oil and its consequences remain poorly understood. This site is focused on Peak Oil implications for Hong Kong.
Why is Peak Oil Important?
Oil is a critically important resource to mankind; one that has powered phenomenal economic and population growth over the last 150 years.
Everyday, businesses, governments and households make decisions based on the assumption that oil will be cheap and plentiful forever. However, powerful evidence is emerging to suggest otherwise.
Peak Oil refers to the fact that after a certain point in time, the global level of oil production will inevitably go into decline. The concept of Peak Oil is agreed, there is only difference over the timing of when it will happen.
Peak oil does not mean we will 'run out of oil from one day to the next' - it means that we will have ever declining amounts available at ever higher prices with increasing instability of supply.
The Global Dilemma
"On a per capita basis, the US uses about 26 barrels per person per year; Europe and Japan about 16 barrels, while China uses about 2.5 and India less than 1.Past global economic developments and oil consumption were largely confined to less than one-third of the global population. However since the early part of this decade when China joined WTO, its economy has taken off at a pace similar to that of the Asian Tigers in the 1970's and Japan before them. India is about 15 years behind China but, here too, economic growth has taken off at sustained rates of about 8% per year.
The big difference between the past and the present is the size of the populations.
China and India together have a combined population of close to 2.5 billion people of whom about 500 million are considered middle class (in PPP). The global car fleet is expected to double to about 2 billion by 2020. The impact on oil consumption will be huge.
Even if OECD oil consumption remains fairly stagnant (the US is still expected to grow by about 5 mbd between now and 2025), the oil demand in the rest of the world will surpass OECD oil consumption and keep rising.
The global dilemma will be how to provide fuel for growth in the developing world when global oil production may be close to peaking."
Dr Herman Franssen, Chief Economist of the International Energy Agency (IEA)
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2802 Admiralty Centre Tower 1
18 Harcourt Road
Hong Kong
ph: 3748 3815
contact
